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April 12, 2018
Global merchandise trade growth to remain strong in 2018 says WTO
The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects global merchandise trade growth to remain strong in 2018 and 2019 after posting its largest increase in six years in 2017.
The WTO anticipates merchandise trade volume growth of 4.4% in 2018, as measured by the average of exports and imports, roughly matching the 4.7% increase recorded last year.
Growth is expected to moderate to 4.0% in 2019, below the average rate of 4.8% since 1990 but still firmly above the post-crisis average of 3.0%.
However, the Organization notes that there are signs that escalating trade tensions may already be affecting business confidence and investment decisions, which could compromise the current outlook.
Increased use of restrictive trade policy measures and the uncertainty they bring to businesses and consumers could produce cycles of retaliation that would weigh heavily on global trade and output.
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